Predictions are challenging, especially when they concern the future. That’s why we create simulations: we start with what we already know and build a model based on literature, assumptions, interviews, and workshops. The most useful models we have developed recently include:
NPV and Levelised Unit Cost model
We specialize in applying Net Present Value (NPV) and Levelized Unit Cost (LUC) calculations to evaluate your investments. With NPV, we look ahead to the lifespan of your investment, taking into account all expected revenues and expenses to determine whether the net value is positive and, if so, by how much. This helps you decide whether the investment is worthwhile.
In addition, we use LUC to map the costs or benefits per unit of product, taking into account the expected production volumes over the lifespan of the facility. This method is particularly valuable for companies in energy production, such as wind turbine or solar panel installations, and helps determine whether your product will be cost-competitive.
Our approach is unique because we don’t just focus on the numbers; we also consider qualitative benefits such as supply security, policy factors, autonomy, and more. This provides you with a comprehensive perspective that goes beyond economic factors to include societal benefits as well.
At Barnebies, we combine quantitative and qualitative methods to provide detailed and accurate insights into the potential returns on your investments. Our experience and ready-to-use templates make the process efficient and remarkably precise, enabling you to make the right decisions with confidence.
Are you interested in optimizing your investment strategies? Contact us today to discover how our proven methods and in-depth analyses can assist you.
Monte Carlo Analysis
Looking for an innovative way to navigate the uncertainties within your business processes? At Barnebies, we harness the power of Monte Carlo Simulation to unravel complex challenges and provide reliable solutions. Our expertise lies in simulating scenarios characterized by variability and unpredictability, such as the production capacity of nuclear medicine in Europe. We incorporate variability into models to provide a realistic picture of potential outcomes, such as shortages of critical medicines. Our approach is tested and proven: we have worked for the European Commission to analyze the likelihood of medicine shortages in the coming decades, utilizing both hard data and soft trends.
Barnebies stands out through meticulous preparation, starting with an in-depth exploration of the issue via interviews and literature reviews, followed by the development of a tailored model. This allows us to analyze the current situation while also predicting and preparing for future scenarios.
Our work is particularly valuable for organizations facing significant uncertainties and high stakes, where a quantitative approach is essential. Whether it concerns supply and demand issues or other economic challenges, Barnebies provides insights that support informed decision-making. Are you facing similar challenges? Neem dan contact met ons op om te ontdekken hoe we uw organisatie kunnen ondersteunen in het navigeren van onzekerheden met vertrouwen en precisie.
How does it work?
Monte Carlo Analyses are a statistical method that, for instance, considers the production levels of a specific number of market actors and the likelihood of events such as system failures. We validate these probabilities and other parameters through interviews and literature analysis. Once we have a solid understanding, we begin simulating: a run is performed for a specified period. All actors start producing, and for each day, there is a certain probability that their facility fails, along with a specific duration for the shutdown.
These scenarios are run tens of thousands of times consecutively, and then an average is calculated. This approach provides insight into the likelihood of certain shortages and, consequently, potential price levels. Below is an overview
